A recent article by Mike Rogoway at OregonLive, shared by The Chronicle, describes the Northwest’s soaring energy demand and supply constraints as a “9-gigawatt problem” that could spark a new power crisis. In the years following the Great Recession, the Oregon power market remained flat despite a growing population and economy due to major advances in power conservation and efficiency. Things like LED lighting and more efficient heating and air conditioning meant that Oregon’s utilities could make do with the power they had.
Data centers, lured by billions of dollars in local tax breaks, turned everything upside down. While consumer and commercial power demand has remained relatively constant for more than a decade, big tech companies have sent electricity consumption soaring from one side of the state to the other. Power planners say that’s only the beginning. They expect artificial intelligence to trigger a massive increase in power use at new and existing data centers in the years ahead.
A new study commissioned by regional utilities concluded that within five years, the Northwest may need nine gigawatts more than it currently has the capacity to provide. That is an immense amount of energy, roughly equal to all the electricity Oregon uses today.
The situation is further pushed by expected growth of data centers, difficulty permitting and building new power plants, and state initiatives requiring a shift to renewable energy which can’t provide firm capacity needs. Short staffing and exploding demand for new transmission also add to the situation. Altogether, the array of developments means the Northwest likely will face a major shortfall of power supply in as few as five years and have a diminished set of tools to address it. That’s how we arrive at the “nine-gigawatt problem,” according to Steve Wright, a former Bonneville director who continues to track the region’s power market closely.
Many believe that the region has the tools to manage its energy future, and one study even notes that three-gigawatts of new supply are already will into the planning or construction phase. There is a lot of collaboration and coordination in the power industry to work through the challenges together.